Commodity Management BlogInnovative Ideas and Thought Leadership for Volatile Commodity Marketplace
The historic downgrade of the US government debt by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) on Friday has shaken the markets worldwide. Brent Crude dropped $10 and suffered the biggest two-day decline since 2009— highlighting just how quickly commodity markets can swing in the heat of a crisis. Rueter’s reported yesterday that Brent crude fell to $98.74 a barrel, the lowest intraday price since February 8, and was down from an April peak above $127. This week’s market turmoil leaves many asking, what must I do to survive in this global economic uncertainty?
Analysts are warning that oil prices could fall further if a second recession takes hold, but both Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs maintain their 2012 price forecasts.
“We believe that WTI crude oil prices could briefly drop to $50 under a recession scenario,” Merrill Lynch said in a note, but it maintained its 2012 average forecast for U.S. crude at $102 and its forecast for Brent next year at $114.
“I don’t think anyone has a clear picture right now,” Brian Hicks, co-manager of the Global Resources Fund at U.S. Global Investors, said Monday, when oil finished the day at $83.10 a barrel. “There are just too many question marks.”
Chief among them: How will the debt downgrade affect U.S. economic growth? Will U.S. consumer spending remain low, and will that impact factory production in China? Will Italy or Spain default on their debt, driving Europe into a recession?
In the midst of this week’s high volatility and uncertainty, C-level executives are turning to their risk managers and asking, “What is our exposure if a double-dip recession becomes reality? What happens to our balance sheet if crude drops to $50? How can we drive profit from this record-setting volatility?” These questions are very difficult, if not impossible to answer with spreadsheets.
Once again, the market is reminding us that it is absolutely critical to have the technology and analytical capabilities in place to run shifting scenarios and understand enterprise-wide commodity exposure. Do you think that commodity price volatility is going to go away? Or that policy risk and global economic uncertainty is waning?
In this environment of rapidly changing information it’s vital to at least have certainty that your data is correct. Triple Point’s Commodity Management Solution provides accurate, up-to-the-minute risk intelligence— arming you with the information you need to make decisions with confidence and certainty. And who doesn’t need a little certainty in these uncertain times?